IRGC doubles down as Iran-US MoU jeopardised by Hormuz strikes

What Happened

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missiles and drones against the US Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait and the US Fifth Naval Fleet in Bahrain over the weekend, citing retaliation for US-led air strikes on February 28. These exchanges follow the IRGC's use of explosive-laden drones to strike a container ship and a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, an action intended to force maritime traffic into Iranian-controlled waters. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran intends to exercise sole management of the waterway for the next 30 days, effectively challenging the US-coordinated transit operations currently managed in cooperation with Oman and the International Maritime Organization.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The escalation threatens the viability of a recently signed memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the United States, which aimed to cease military operations on all fronts. The conflict is further complicated by a separate US-brokered framework agreement that permits Israeli forces to remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, a condition that directly contradicts the terms of the Iran-US MoU and has been rejected by Hezbollah.

Watch For

Monitor the status of the 30-day window declared by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as any further military responses from the US or Israel regarding the IRGC's strikes on regional bases. Additionally, observe whether the Iranian parliament reconvenes following the burial of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei next month, as this may signal shifts in domestic policy regarding the ongoing negotiations.