Escalating US-Iran strikes threaten interim peace agreement

What Happened

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched drone and missile strikes against Bahrain and Kuwait on Sunday, following US Central Command strikes on Iranian military surveillance, communications, air defense, drone storage, and mine-laying facilities in southern Iran. The IRGC stated these actions were in response to US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz to shipping without Iranian oversight. Kuwait reported intercepting two ballistic missiles, while Bahrain’s interior ministry confirmed damage to a residential building near its international airport. Separately, in southern Lebanon, an Israeli soldier was killed during an encounter with Hezbollah in Deir Seryan, followed by Israeli strikes on the outskirts of Deir Seryan and Taybeh, despite a recent agreement aimed at ending hostilities in the region.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The exchange of fire between the US and Iran, combined with the ongoing instability in southern Lebanon, threatens to collapse the 60-day interim peace agreement signed earlier this month. The dispute over the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy chokepoint—has become a primary driver of the current escalation, as Iran seeks to leverage its control over the waterway to secure sanctions relief and regional dominance, while the US attempts to restore international shipping access.

Watch For

Monitor the status of the 60-day memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, which is currently at risk of a 'complete halt' following the IRGC's threats. Additionally, observe the implementation of the Israel-Lebanon withdrawal agreement, as Tehran has explicitly linked the durability of its own peace deal with the US to the maintenance of a ceasefire in Lebanon.