US and Iran trade most intense strikes since ceasefire extended

What Happened

On Thursday, the United States and Iran engaged in an intense exchange of strikes, marking the most significant escalation since the 17 June memorandum of understanding (MoU) intended to extend a ceasefire. The US military reported striking approximately 90 targets in Iran, including missile launchers, a runway, and infrastructure in Khuzestan and the eastern provinces, citing a need to protect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions followed Iranian attacks on three ships in the strait on Tuesday. Iranian officials, including deputy governor of Bushehr Ehsan Jahanian, reported strikes near the Bushehr nuclear power plant, a military base in Choghadak, and a fishing pier. Iranian forces launched ballistic missiles at US-utilized bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan’s Azraq military base. Casualties reported by Iranian sources include 17 deaths, including nine military personnel and one firefighter.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The collapse of the 17 June MoU and the intensity of the strikes threaten to derail planned negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. The targeting of infrastructure, including bridges vital for trade with China and the perimeter of the Bushehr nuclear facility, significantly increases the risk of a broader regional conflict and further destabilizes global energy markets reliant on the strait.

Watch For

Monitor the status of the planned negotiations, which were scheduled to begin following the conclusion of the funeral for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Additionally, observe whether the transition of leadership to Mojtaba Khamenei results in a shift in Iranian military posture or a continuation of the current retaliatory cycle.