Iran using Gulf attacks to force control over Strait of Hormuz shipping, analysts warn

What Happened

The Islamic Republic of Iran is using military coercion to assert administrative control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The assessment claims Iran is violating the spirit of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that was intended to facilitate dialogue with Gulf states on maritime administration. On Wednesday, Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission member Alaeddin Boroujerdi insisted that commercial vessel traffic through the strait must occur under Iranian oversight and management, specifically through the IRGC Navy. On Tuesday, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei asserted that Clause 5 of the MoU confirmed Iran’s responsibility for safe passage, dismissed an allegation that a Qatari vessel was targeted as 'questionable,' and stated that Iran was absorbing responsibility for Hormuz administration, warning that ships not following Iranian orders disrupt safe navigation.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil transit. Iran’s attempt to impose unilateral administrative and military control challenges Gulf state sovereignty and undermines a U.S.-brokered de-escalation framework. The lack of enforcement mechanisms in the MoU leaves Iran with no deterrent against violating its spirit, raising the risk of naval incidents and direct military confrontation involving the U.S., Israel, and Gulf states. The situation also tests US credibility as Gulf capitals view the MoU’s failure as validation of US unreliability.

Watch For

Monitor for official responses from Gulf states—especially Oman, UAE, and Saudi Arabia—and any U.S. military posturing in the Gulf. Watch for further statements from Iranian officials asserting administrative control, and for any incidents involving commercial shipping or naval assets. Potential IAEA or diplomatic moves linked to the broader Iran nuclear standoff may intersect with these maritime tensions. Also note if analysts or governments formally declare the MoU collapsed or demand new security guarantees.