The current state of Iran’s nuke, ballistic missiles threat post MoU - exclusive

What Happened

Two weeks after the US-Iran agreement that ended the early 2026 hostilities, assessments reveal that Iran retains over 400 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium, buried under rubble at the Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow nuclear facilities. While the US and IAEA demand full inspector access and the removal or dilution of this stockpile, leaks from US officials during negotiations suggest Iran has agreed in principle, though Israel worries that President Trump may not enforce this, having referred to the uranium as mere "nuclear dust." Israeli sources believe Iran can now access the buried uranium and remove it covertly, and that a fraction of pre-war centrifuges survived Israeli strikes, stored inoperable under debris. Institute for Science and International Security President David Albright warned that if the uranium is only diluted to 3.67% (as in the 2015 deal), it would remain 70% of the way to weapons-grade, and with 1,000 IR-6 centrifuges could be re-enriched within four to five months.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The unresolved status of Iran's near-weapons-grade uranium and surviving centrifuge components risks a future clandestine breakout, undermining the post-war nuclear deal. With US military posture in the region reduced and President Trump apparently deprioritizing the 60% uranium threat, Iran may exploit the ambiguity to restart its nuclear weapons program. For Israel and the wider region, the failure to neutralize this latent capability could trigger renewed military escalation or a nuclear arms race.

Watch For

Monitor whether IAEA inspectors regain full access to the Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow sites, and whether the US presses for dilution to natural level (0.7%) or only to 3.67%. Watch for Iranian attempts to recover uranium from rubble or relocate centrifuges. Any Israeli intelligence revelations or military signals would indicate heightened concern. Also note any further bilateral US-Iran talks on sequencing of sanctions relief versus uranium neutralization, and the US military posture around the Strait of Hormuz.