Al Jazeera
centerDEVELOPINGEvolution under fire: Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ in a post-war era

Has Iran's regional deterrence been permanently degraded, or is its proxy network mutating into a resilient force?.
Full BriefGenerated 9h ago
What Happened
According to a research paper by the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies (AJCS), a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran halted over three months of direct warfare, lifted a US naval blockade, and established a $300bn reconstruction fund for Iran. Al Jazeera spoke to experts who assessed the impact on Iran’s “axis of resistance” — the regional network of pro-Iranian forces including Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and armed groups in Iraq. During the conflict, Iran relied primarily on its own long-range missiles, drones, and control over the Strait of Hormuz rather than unleashing its proxies, who acted cautiously. Nader Hashemi of Georgetown University argued the axis is at its weakest since formation and that forward defence was “significantly weakened.” Negar Mortazavi of the Center for International Policy contended that the doctrine has adapted toward homeland-based deterrence, making Iran’s own military capabilities the centrepiece. Ahmed al-Komi, a Palestinian journalist in Tehran, noted Hezbollah’s resilience and defended the decision to stick with allies. The reconstruction fund raises a dilemma: whether Iran will prioritise domestic recovery, rebuild the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and missile capacity, or funnel resources to its battered proxies.
Key Actors
- ·Iran(State actor and patron of the axis of resistance)Adopted a homeland-based deterrence strategy during the conflict, relying on missiles, drones, and Strait of Hormuz leverage rather than proxy unleashing; faces the post-war choice of prioritising domestic reconstruction or rebuilding proxy capabilities.
- ·Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)(Iranian military force separate from the Artesh, central to deterrence and external operations)Expected to receive priority in resource allocation for rebuilding drone and missile capacity and reconstituting alliances, according to Hashemi.
- ·United States(Counterparty to Iran, signatory of the MOU)Signed the MOU, lifting the naval blockade and abandoning initial regime-change war aims; implicitly recognised Iran as a legitimate regional power, potentially ending Israeli ambitions of uncontested hegemony, per AJCS.
- ·Hezbollah(Lebanese pro-Iranian armed group in the axis of resistance)Withstood massive blows during the conflict but had limited offensive impact compared to Iran’s own weapons; its future capabilities hinge on whether Iran will allocate reconstruction funds to rebuild the proxy network.
Why It Matters
The analysis tests whether the U.S.–Iran war and subsequent MOU have permanently degraded Iran’s proxy network or forced a strategic evolution toward a more decentralised and resilient form. The outcome will shape regional stability: if Iran shifts to homeland deterrence, direct state-to-state confrontation may remain more likely than proxy wars; if it reinvests in Hezbollah and other groups, the axis could re-emerge in a mutated, harder-to-destroy structure. The U.S. abandonment of regime change and implicit recognition of Iran as a regional power also recalibrates Israeli security calculations and the broader Middle East power balance.
Watch For
Monitor the implementation of the MOU and the flow of the $300bn reconstruction fund. Watch for Iranian budget allocations and procurement signals indicating whether resources go to domestic economic recovery, IRGC modernisation, or covert support for Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias. Track any public statements or military drills by the axis members that might signal renewed capabilities. The indirect U.S.–Iran technical talks in Doha (separately reported) could provide further clues on the post-war diplomatic architecture.
Generated 9h ago · Based on full articleAuto-Compiled
This page aggregates and summarizes reporting from Al Jazeera. The Conflict Pulse does not author original reporting. Read the original source for full coverage.
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