Evolution under fire: Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ in a post-war era

What Happened

According to a research paper by the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies (AJCS), a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran halted over three months of direct warfare, lifted a US naval blockade, and established a $300bn reconstruction fund for Iran. Al Jazeera spoke to experts who assessed the impact on Iran’s “axis of resistance” — the regional network of pro-Iranian forces including Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and armed groups in Iraq. During the conflict, Iran relied primarily on its own long-range missiles, drones, and control over the Strait of Hormuz rather than unleashing its proxies, who acted cautiously. Nader Hashemi of Georgetown University argued the axis is at its weakest since formation and that forward defence was “significantly weakened.” Negar Mortazavi of the Center for International Policy contended that the doctrine has adapted toward homeland-based deterrence, making Iran’s own military capabilities the centrepiece. Ahmed al-Komi, a Palestinian journalist in Tehran, noted Hezbollah’s resilience and defended the decision to stick with allies. The reconstruction fund raises a dilemma: whether Iran will prioritise domestic recovery, rebuild the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and missile capacity, or funnel resources to its battered proxies.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The analysis tests whether the U.S.–Iran war and subsequent MOU have permanently degraded Iran’s proxy network or forced a strategic evolution toward a more decentralised and resilient form. The outcome will shape regional stability: if Iran shifts to homeland deterrence, direct state-to-state confrontation may remain more likely than proxy wars; if it reinvests in Hezbollah and other groups, the axis could re-emerge in a mutated, harder-to-destroy structure. The U.S. abandonment of regime change and implicit recognition of Iran as a regional power also recalibrates Israeli security calculations and the broader Middle East power balance.

Watch For

Monitor the implementation of the MOU and the flow of the $300bn reconstruction fund. Watch for Iranian budget allocations and procurement signals indicating whether resources go to domestic economic recovery, IRGC modernisation, or covert support for Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias. Track any public statements or military drills by the axis members that might signal renewed capabilities. The indirect U.S.–Iran technical talks in Doha (separately reported) could provide further clues on the post-war diplomatic architecture.