Ethiopia PM's party wins landslide as fears grow of new conflict

What Happened

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party secured 438 of 501 declared parliamentary seats in the general election, ensuring him another term. The vote was overshadowed by security crises: 143 polling stations failed to open in Amhara and Oromia due to insurgencies by the Fano militias and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), both of which rejected the election. The entire Tigray region — 36 constituencies and six million people — was excluded from the poll. Tensions over the 2022 Pretoria Agreement persist, with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) having restored its pre-war administration and both sides accusing each other of violating the peace deal. The TPLF is alleged to be forcibly recruiting young men; local security head Tesfaye Abadi denied forced recruitment, claiming youths are “simply getting training to defend themselves.” Simultaneously, Eritrea has shifted its alliance toward Tigray’s leaders, accusing Addis Ababa of imperial ambitions over Red Sea access, raising fears that any new Tigray conflict could draw in Eritrea and spread across the region.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The election outcome solidifies Abiy’s power but occurs against a backdrop of unresolved post-war tensions and expanding insurgencies. The breakdown of the Pretoria Agreement, combined with Eritrea’s realignment toward Tigray, risks reigniting a conflict that the African Union’s mediator estimated killed 600,000 people. A new Tigray war could draw in regional actors, destabilising the Horn of Africa, while ongoing Fano and OLA insurgencies threaten Ethiopia’s internal security. Ethiopia’s quest for Red Sea access and alleged involvement in Sudan’s civil war further complicate a volatile regional landscape.

Watch For

Monitor the TPLF’s reported forced recruitment and any military mobilisation in Tigray, as well as federal troop movements. Track Eritrea’s diplomatic and military posture. Watch for implementation milestones of the Pretoria Agreement, particularly regarding disarmament and the status of Western Tigray. The swearing-in of Abiy’s new government in October may serve as a flashpoint. US visa restrictions on TPLF members and EU calls for de-escalation signal heightened international scrutiny; further punitive measures or mediation efforts could follow.