Hundreds flee fighting in northern Ethiopia as fears rise of return to civil war

What Happened

On Saturday, intense clashes erupted in Shererina, western Tigray, near the Sudan border, between forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian federal army. A TPLF member reported that the fighting, which continued into Sunday, involved heavy artillery and drones. Hundreds of civilians and wounded fighters fled across the border into Sudan, according to Sudanese medical and local sources. The TPLF-led Tigray administration accused the federal government of launching an ‘open war’ in the Shererina area, claiming it violated the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement. Ethiopia’s federal Minister Abraham Belay confirmed the clashes, accused the ‘TPLF clique’ of starting them, and warned of ‘worse consequences’ while calling for dialogue. The death toll remains unclear. The confrontation is the most serious since the end of the civil war in 2022 and occurred in the disputed western Tigray territory, which is claimed by both Tigray and Amhara regions.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The fighting risks unraveling the fragile 2022 Pretoria peace deal that ended the devastating Tigray war. The clash in disputed western Tigray—a territory claimed by both Tigray and Amhara—could reignite broader ethnic and political conflicts involving Amhara Fano militias and Eritrea. There are also concerns that the Sudanese civil war’s factions are backing opposing Ethiopian sides, potentially internationalizing the conflict and destabilizing the Horn of Africa.

Watch For

Monitor whether full-scale fighting resumes across Tigray, particularly if the TPLF and federal forces mobilize further. Watch for statements from the African Union, EU, and U.S., which have monitored the peace deal. Keep an eye on Amhara region reactions, as Fano militias may exploit the situation. Also track refugee flows into Sudan and any evidence of proxy involvement by Sudanese civil war actors.