Northern Ethiopia’s shifting alliances explained

What Happened

In March 2025, Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) fighters led by Debretsion Gebremichael seized the regional radio station and the mayor's office in Mekele, along with several towns on the Eritrean border including parts of Sehartie district and Adigrat, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. The center also noted that Eritrea still controls parts of the Irob and Shiraro districts despite the Pretoria Agreement's requirement for foreign force withdrawal. In October 2025, Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the TPLF and Eritrea, in a letter to the UN, of 'financing, mobilising and directing' Fano militias that had advanced in North Wollo and attempted to seize Weldiya in September. The letter, as reported by Addis Standard, claimed TPLF leaders and fighters directly participated in the operation. Debretsion rejected the allegations as 'fabricated stories and smear campaigns' aimed at diverting from the government's failure to implement the peace deal. Fano, originally allied with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed against the TPLF, has rejected disarmament and is now described by the BBC as expanding its agenda toward removing the government. Eritrea denied the accusations, calling them 'false and blatantly fabricated,' and accused Addis Ababa of seeking access to the Assab port. Fighting erupted in western Tigray earlier this week, with the Ethiopian government and TPLF trading blame for initiating the clashes.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The realignment of former enemies into an alleged anti-government axis threatens to unravel the fragile post-Pretoria peace and could reignite large-scale conflict in northern Ethiopia. Accusations of Eritrean involvement and foreign troop presence violate the peace terms, while the federal government's claim of a TPLF-Fano-Eritrea nexus broadens the conflict beyond Tigray into Amhara. This dynamic risks drawing in regional powers like Sudan and Egypt, given Eritrea's ties to the Sudanese army and Egypt, and Abiy Ahmed's reported closeness to the RSF, escalating a multi-front insurgency with potential for humanitarian disaster and state collapse.

Watch For

Monitor the outcome of clashes in western Tigray and any expansion of fighting into contested areas like North Wollo. Watch for concrete evidence of coordination between the TPLF, Fano, and Eritrea, and the UN's response to Ethiopia's letter. Key events include potential federal military offensives against Fano in Amhara, further Tigrayan territorial seizures along the Eritrean border, and any movement toward Eritrean troop withdrawal. Diplomatic developments with Sudan, Egypt, and the AU over the Nile dispute and Red Sea access will also shape alignments.