JD Vance claims US holds all the cards in Iran and will win ‘either way’

What Happened

US Vice President JD Vance claimed that the United States 'holds all the cards' in negotiations with Iran and will 'win either way,' asserting that Iran's ability to enrich uranium has been 'destroyed.' He referred to a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the Trump administration and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian as a temporary framework. Hours before his remarks, a tanker was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US and Iran each conducted strikes in what was described as the worst escalation since the interim deal. Washington said it hit Iranian targets overnight, while Iran said it struck targets linked to US forces on Saturday in retaliation; a cargo ship had been attacked on Thursday, triggering the hostilities. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that reducing Iran's stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium or transferring it abroad remains a viable option while negotiations continue.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The juxtaposition of Vance's maximalist rhetoric with a fresh round of military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz underscores the fragility of the interim US–Iran ceasefire and the high risk of miscalculation. The reported strikes, coupled with the unresolved status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, highlight the precariousness of the diplomatic track. Vance's public posture signals a dual approach—offering a 'transformative' reset if Iran capitulates while maintaining that military and economic pressure has effectively neutralized its nuclear breakout capability. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint for disruption to global oil flows, with oil prices noted at $73 per barrel.

Watch For

Official confirmation and attribution of the tanker and cargo ship attacks; any IAEA board action or technical report on the fate of Iran's 60%-enriched stockpile; expiration or renewal of the 60-day MOU; further naval incidents in the Strait of Hormuz; and the outcome of ongoing negotiations between U.S. and Iranian representatives in Lucerne.