Iran's hardliners fear being sidelined in US deal

What Happened

In the run-up to the expected formal signing of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding (MoU) on Friday, June 17, 2026, hardline factions in Iran have escalated protests against the deal. Demonstrators in Tehran's Ibn Sina Square shouted slogans calling for the resignation of Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with some reportedly calling for violence. Similar protests occurred outside a Foreign Ministry office in Mashhad. Hardline MP Mahmoud Nabavian, deputy head of parliament's National Security Committee and close to the Paydari Front, publicly criticized the MoU for lacking Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and vague US military withdrawal commitments. Analysts describe the backlash as an existential challenge for hardliners who thrive on confrontation and fear being sidelined by a shift toward pragmatism.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The protests highlight deep internal rifts within Iran's regime over engagement with the US. If the MoU proceeds, it could shift the regime's legitimacy from ideological confrontation to pragmatism and economic management, potentially weakening hardline factions whose power depends on permanent mobilization. This internal struggle may affect the implementation of any nuclear deal and Iran's regional posture, including its support for Axis of Resistance networks.

Watch For

Monitor the formal signing of the MoU on Friday, June 17, 2026, and the public release of its terms. Watch for continued protests and parliamentary challenges, particularly from the National Security Committee. Observe whether Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly endorses or distances himself from the deal, which would signal the direction of internal power dynamics. Also, track statements from the US and the international response.