Iran: From clerical rule to military capture

What Happened

Following the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an Israeli attack on 28 February 2026, Iran’s Assembly of Experts appointed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader — a decision analysts say was made under pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC, which already commands roughly half of Iran’s oil wealth and vast interests in construction, telecommunications, and exports, has assumed strategic and operational command during the ongoing Iran war, according to Germany-based political analyst Faraj Sarkohi. Damon Golriz of The Hague Institute for Geopolitics argues that Mojtaba’s appointment cements a reality where political calculation and the balance of power, not religious legitimacy, have become decisive; though Mojtaba holds the title, real power lies with a network of military and security figures emerging from the IRGC’s barracks, while the clerical role is becoming decorative. Meanwhile, economic collapse fuels deep public disaffection: the IMF projects a 6% GDP contraction and 68.9% inflation for 2026, with 80% of Iranians reportedly averse to the system and mass protests anticipated after the 6 January 2026 killings of peaceful demonstrators.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

A move from clerical to de facto military rule marks a historic shift in the Islamic Republic’s power structure, with direct consequences for Iran’s posture in regional confrontations with Israel and the US, the management of its proxy networks, and the regime’s ideological coherence. The sidelining of religious legitimacy, coupled with a deep economic crisis and widespread public alienation, sharply raises the risk of internal instability in a nuclear‑threshold state of nearly 90 million people.

Watch For

Monitor any formal institutional or constitutional changes that consolidate IRGC authority, the trajectory of the ongoing war with Israel, and the potential for mass unrest triggered by further economic deterioration or repression. Also observe how the IAEA’s nuclear oversight is affected by a more security‑dominated decision‑making structure.