Iran fast-tracks 11 million barrels of oil as Trump threatens blockade

What Happened

Iran dispatched five supertankers and one Suezmax vessel carrying roughly 11 million barrels of crude oil in the 24 hours through Thursday, according to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data. The shipments were rushed out immediately after a second day of US military strikes that targeted civilian infrastructure—including railway bridges—killing 14 people and injuring 78, with 47 hospitalized, Iranian health ministry spokesperson Hossein Kermanpour said. The US had earlier revoked a sanctions waiver that temporarily lifted oil restrictions after Iran attacked vessels in Qatari and Saudi waters. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy warned that further US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz would provoke a 'crushing response,' framing the American actions as disrupting the strait's reopening.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz has become the primary flashpoint between the US and Iran, eclipsing the nuclear programme as a source of tension. The rapid export of 11 million barrels—roughly a week’s worth of pre-war shipments—underscores the economic stakes and market jitters that drove oil prices up nearly 9% this week. The US strikes and sanctions reversal threaten to destroy the Islamabad memorandum of understanding, which had offered a 60-day ceasefire and potential negotiations over the waterway's future control, raising the risk of a wider maritime conflict and 'economic catastrophe' acknowledged by President Trump.

Watch For

Immediate attention will focus on whether the remaining 60-day ceasefire extension under the MoU survives and if Oman-mediated talks can resume. Market reaction and any further US naval or military moves in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Iran's promised 'crushing response,' will be critical. The fate of the now-dispatched oil tankers—whether they find buyers amid sanctions—and any new US sanctions or military actions will shape the trajectory.