US expands Iran attacks as Trump warns Tehran and Houthis over Red Sea strikes

What Happened

The United States struck targets across Iran, extending to the Caspian Sea, as President Donald Trump threatened “major military punishment” against Tehran and its Houthi allies if Red Sea shipping attacks continued. Iran retaliated with drone strikes against US military targets in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait, including Al-Adiri/Camp Buehring, Camp Arifjan, Camp Doha, and a US Fifth Fleet surveillance tower in Bahrain. The New York Times reported that Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal delivered by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, but Iraq later disputed the report, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed Iran was “begging for a ceasefire.” Concurrently, Houthi forces struck two Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel and forcing other vessels to reroute. Trump warned China and Russia against arming Iran, asserting they were not yet doing so, and said he was considering “relaunching major combat” against Iran.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The US strikes reaching the Caspian Sea mark a geographic escalation beyond prior exchanges, while simultaneous Houthi attacks in the Red Sea choke global trade at the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz—the latter seeing tanker traffic drop to a single vessel on Thursday. Oil prices spiked 7% to above $100 per barrel, and shipping disruptions are rippling into consumer goods. Iran's rejection of a ceasefire and Trump's threat of “major military punishment” raise the spectre of a wider conflict that could entangle US allies and Iranian proxies across the region, with potential consequences for nuclear negotiations, Gulf security, and great-power dynamics involving China and Russia.

Watch For

Monitor whether US threats materialise into further strikes against Iran or Houthi targets in Yemen. Watch for Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb and any movement toward easing or tightening the blockade, as well as tanker insurance and oil price volatility. Follow Pakistan-mediated exploratory talks after the Iranian interior minister's visit and any signals from China or Russia regarding weapons supplies. Also note potential IAEA-related developments if the conflict broadens.