Israel, US have plan ready for third Iran war, Tehran's hidden weapons pose challenges - analysis

What Happened

A Jerusalem Post analysis examines whether the United States and Israel agree on targets, challenges, and timelines for a third military campaign against Iran. It reports that foreign sources said the Israeli Air Force rehearsed strikes by flying through Syria and Iraq to the Iranian border; Israel has used F-35s to outwit and eliminate Iranian radar four times since April 2024, followed by F-15 and F-16 bombing raids, with over 200 Israeli fighter jets striking Iran in the first wave in February of this year. The article states the US and Israel divided Iran into sectors—Israel focused on western and Tehran sectors, American forces on the southern sector and some Tehran targets—and that the first goal is to establish air supremacy so drones can loiter over targets.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

A third Iran war would test whether air supremacy alone can neutralize deeply buried nuclear and missile infrastructure and prevent dispersed, adaptive missile attacks. The unresolved questions about Pickaxe Mountain's vulnerability and Iran's ability to reopen caved-in facilities, strike Israel's South despite air defenses, and damage US bases suggest that even a short clean operation may not force a change in Iran's negotiating position. The outcome could shape nuclear proliferation red lines, US-Israel coordination, and the security of Gulf energy and maritime routes.

Watch For

Monitor whether Israel or the US publicly commits to or launches strikes on Pickaxe Mountain or other Iranian nuclear/missile sites; publication of further technical assessments from the Institute for Science and International Security on tunnel vulnerabilities; Iranian statements and actual missile or drone attacks on US ships, underwater cables, or allied energy infrastructure; Houthi attacks on Saudi economic facilities; any evidence that Israel has developed new methods to keep underground missile facilities closed or to locate dispersed missile crews; and whether Trump's three-day timeline holds or operations extend into weeks.