Concern for renewed war in Iran as US attacks military, civilian targets

What Happened

Over several days, the United States military launched three waves of strikes on Iranian territory, hitting more than 300 military targets and multiple civilian sites across at least 10 provinces, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM) and Iranian authorities. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the Strait of Hormuz 'once again considered closed' after two vessels attempting to use a southern route near Oman were struck. Iran claimed to have attacked US interests in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar and Oman in retaliation. The strikes targeted coastal surveillance, logistics, communications, and missile, drone and naval assets, as well as infrastructure including the Aq Tekeh Khan railway bridge in Golestan province and a bridge 55 km from Mashhad. The perimeter of the Bushehr nuclear power plant was hit without damage, a firefighter was killed in an airport strike in Iranshahr, and an IRGC soldier and multiple fishermen were reported killed or wounded. Iranian electricity generation capacity was reduced by about 4,200 megawatts, compounding an energy crisis. The escalation occurred against the backdrop of the assassination and burial of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, called for revenge. Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz signalled readiness to resume military strikes in Iran, effectively undermining a June 17 memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The multi-front escalation threatens to reignite full-scale war between the US and Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global energy and trade—again at the centre of a naval standoff. Deep strikes on inland infrastructure and the Bushehr nuclear plant perimeter raise the spectre of a wider conflict that could disrupt international shipping, supply chains from Central Asia to Europe, and regional stability. The combination of a new Iranian supreme leader calling for revenge, Israel’s active undermining of the US–Iran MoU, and the severe degradation of Iran’s power grid and transport routes creates a highly volatile and unpredictable security environment with potential for miscalculation, humanitarian crisis, and proxy involvement across the Gulf and Levant.

Watch For

Monitor whether Iran follows through on its threat to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and any further strikes on US interests in the Gulf. Watch for additional US-announced waves against military or infrastructure targets, particularly any deliberate damage to nuclear facilities. Track Israel’s next moves in southern Lebanon and any direct strikes on Iranian soil. Diplomatic signals—especially from the UN, the IAEA regarding the Bushehr plant, and the E3—will indicate appetite for a renewed ceasefire, while state media rhetoric and IRGC force posture could signal imminent major retaliation.