After Strait of Hormuz, Iran turns to Bab el-Mandeb as new pressure point - analysis

What Happened

Iran is signaling through its Yemeni proxy, the Houthis (Ansarullah), that it could close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a new pressure point against Washington, compounding the existing choke on the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, Houthi political bureau member Mohammed al-Farah warned on Iran's Press TV that Yemen's armed forces were prepared to close Bab el-Mandeb if Saudi Arabia continued attacks on Yemen, claiming the US was inciting Riyadh. He threatened an 'operational alliance' closing both straits, predicting oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel. The statement comes amid escalating US strikes inside Iran and parallel Houthi attacks, with analysts describing the move as Tehran widening the conflict and threatening both of the world's key energy transit chokepoints simultaneously.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The threat to close Bab el-Mandeb alongside the already disrupted Strait of Hormuz would place two of the world’s most critical oil and shipping lanes at risk, potentially triggering a severe global economic shock. It marks a dangerous escalation in Iran’s asymmetric strategy, using proxy forces to extend the confrontation beyond the Gulf and deepen pressure on Washington. The move could force the US and its allies to consider a broader military response or a return to negotiations, while Gulf states weigh whether the cost of a wider conflict is preferable to a destabilized status quo.

Watch For

Monitor whether Houthi forces escalate attacks on commercial shipping or attempt to mine the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, following the threat. Watch for any intensification of US strikes on Iranian or Houthi targets, Saudi Arabia’s military posture in Yemen, and diplomatic signals from Oman-mediated backchannels. Oil market reactions and shipping company rerouting decisions will be immediate indicators. The IAEA reporting cycle and any new US-Iran backchannel talks could also be affected by the rising maritime tensions.