Who is calling the shots in Iran amid the deadly war with the US?

What Happened

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has asserted control over maritime transit in the Strait of Hormuz, mandating that vessels utilize northern routes through Iranian territorial waters rather than southern paths near Oman. This directive has resulted in multiple attacks on tankers and cargo ships throughout the month. While the United States government has characterized the Iranian leadership as fragmented following the death of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iranian officials maintain a unified stance on the necessity of controlling the strait as a strategic asset.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The consolidation of power by the IRGC and the militarization of the Strait of Hormuz represent a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States. By enforcing specific transit routes and engaging in kinetic actions against commercial shipping, Iran is leveraging its geographic position to exert pressure on international maritime trade and challenge the existing sanctions architecture.

Watch For

Monitor the outcomes of ongoing diplomatic efforts in Oman regarding the proposed third transit route for vessels. Additionally, observe the internal political dynamics between the Iranian parliament, the Paydari Front, and the government of Masoud Pezeshkian as they navigate potential negotiations with the United States.