What Iran and US get from deal and why both could struggle to keep it

What Happened

After more than 100 days of military conflict involving US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the United States and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end active hostilities and begin negotiations. The MOU, endorsed by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, establishes a 60-day framework for talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, halts military operations on all fronts including Lebanon, and provides for mutual respect of sovereignty, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian shipping. Iran committed to ensuring safe commercial passage through Hormuz, reaffirming it will not pursue nuclear weapons, and entering negotiations on highly enriched uranium and enrichment infrastructure. The US agreed to remove the naval blockade, issue waivers for Iranian oil exports, release frozen or restricted Iranian assets, work towards easing sanctions, and pursue a reconstruction and economic development plan for Iran worth at least $300 billion. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei authorized the deal while distancing himself, stating it was accepted on the Supreme National Security Council’s responsibility. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, heading the negotiating team, framed the talks in defiant terms to satisfy Iran’s hardline base.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The MOU halts active hostilities and temporarily stabilizes a region threatened by direct US-Iran conflict, but defers critical decisions on Iran's nuclear programme, uranium stockpile, and enrichment capabilities. It offers Iran relief from military pressure, sanctions, and the naval blockade, enabling the regime to claim survival and strength while the US secures a ceasefire and a diplomatic path to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Failure to reach a comprehensive deal within 60 days could reignite fighting and deepen domestic political divisions in both countries, especially if hardliners in Iran or US critics depict the agreement as overly concessionary.

Watch For

The 60-day negotiation window, which will test Iran’s willingness to compromise on highly enriched uranium and enrichment infrastructure. Compliance with commitments to lift the naval blockade and reopen Hormuz. Domestic Iran reactions from IRGC, parliament, and conservative media, who may accuse negotiators of betraying declared victory. In the US, political pushback from opponents of sanctions relief. Potential IAEA reports on Iran’s nuclear activities during the talks. Any collapse of the process could lead to renewed Israeli or US military pressure.