US will blame Israel if large-scale attacks against Iran fail, former defense official warns

What Happened

Former senior Israeli defense official and Iranian nuclear expert Avner Vilan warned in a 103FM interview on Monday that if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu persuades US President Donald Trump to launch another large-scale attack on Iran during his upcoming Washington visit, and the attack fails, the United States will blame Israel for dragging it into a war that damaged its international standing and raised fuel prices. Vilan described the current US-Iran situation as a fragile status quo — 'neither peace nor war' — since the end of Operation Roaring Lion, with neither side rushing to change it. He assessed that Iran would prefer to buy time until the US midterm elections or a new president rather than reach an agreement requiring significant concessions, particularly on its advances in the Strait of Hormuz, and that the US has reached the limit of its initial concessions. Vilan also commented on a New York Times report citing interceptor missile shortages as a factor in US restraint, suggesting that while the shortage may be real, the larger question is whether any military action could achieve regime change or lasting strategic gains.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The warning highlights the high-stakes diplomatic and military brinkmanship between the US, Israel, and Iran. A failed Israeli-advocated strike could strain the US-Israel alliance, destabilize global oil markets, and expose the absence of a viable military endgame for altering Iran's nuclear posture. The analysis also reveals internal US constraints, including interceptor missile shortages, and Iran's calculation to delay negotiations until a potential shift in American political leadership, leaving the region in a dangerous holding pattern.

Watch For

Monitor the Netanyahu-Trump meeting in Washington for any signals on military coordination or renewed maximum pressure. Track IAEA reports and diplomatic channels for Iranian concessions or escalatory steps. Watch US midterm election dynamics and fuel price trends as potential triggers. Follow further disclosures on American interceptor missile readiness and any related force posture adjustments in the Middle East.