US launches new strikes as Iran warns of regional turmoil

What Happened

The United States launched a 12th consecutive night of airstrikes on targets in southern Iran, including Bushehr, Ahvaz, Jask, Andimeshk, and Sirik, with US Central Command (CENTCOM) stating the strikes aimed to degrade Iran's ability to threaten civilian mariners. Two people were killed and 11 wounded in a missile attack on the Shalamcheh border crossing between Iran and Iraq, according to Iranian media and a Khuzestan deputy governor. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for retaliatory attacks on US military assets in Kuwait and Jordan, asserting it destroyed a Patriot missile defence system, MQ9 drone hangars, and military accommodation at Ali al-Salem airbase and Al-Adiri barracks, as well as a THAAD radar and other systems in Jordan. Kuwait reported its air defences intercepted an Iranian drone, and Iran warned through its chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf that no regional infrastructure would be safe unless Iranian security is guaranteed. Both sides indicated the interim peace deal had collapsed, and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed 'an eye for an eye' retaliation. The IRGC also claimed an explosion set a tanker ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz after it attempted an unauthorised transit, while Iran-allied Houthis declared a blockade of Saudi ports, prompting five tankers to divert.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The escalation marks a dangerous expansion of direct conflict between the US and Iran, with US strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure and IRGC attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Jordan. This jeopardizes regional stability, threatens the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, and risks drawing in additional actors such as the Houthis. The collapse of the interim peace deal and the absence of credible mediation raise the spectre of a protracted war with severe economic and humanitarian consequences.

Watch For

Monitor whether the US carries out Trump’s threat to strike Iranian power plants and bridges for each ship targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. Watch for further IRGC attacks on US bases in Gulf states and whether the Strait remains open for transit. Track diplomatic movements, particularly Oman’s mediation efforts, and any Houthi actions in the Red Sea that could disrupt energy shipments. Also note casualty reporting from both sides and the status of the Shalamcheh border crossing.