What’s in – and what’s not in – the US-Iran peace deal

What Happened

The United States and Iran reached a deal late on Sunday to return to a prewar status quo, as reported by multiple sources with differing texts still circulating. Under the agreement, the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran commits to reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping without restriction from Friday, aiming for pre-war traffic levels within 30 days pending demining. The deal defers nuclear negotiations, with no new concessions from Iran on its nuclear program; the US reportedly abandoned demands to export all uranium stockpiles and to halt domestic enrichment, and Donald Trump hinted at accepting a 15-year enrichment moratorium. A 60-day ceasefire framework is included, but the agreement omits unconditional surrender, regime change, ballistic missile restrictions, political prisoner releases, and curbs on Iran’s proxy forces. A signing ceremony is planned for Friday in Geneva, following Iranian negotiators’ travel to Doha to finalize shaky implementation details. Iran insists on verifiable steps, including a Lebanon ceasefire, before advancing reciprocal measures, while citing the 2018 US withdrawal as a cautionary precedent.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The deal averts an immediate US-Iran military escalation and stabilizes the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping lane, while resetting nuclear diplomacy on terms more favorable to Iran than pre-war offers. It signals a US shift from maximum pressure and regime change to pragmatic bargaining, easing economic strain on both countries and potentially recalibrating regional dynamics. However, it leaves unresolved Israel’s core demands on ballistic missiles and proxy forces, setting a stage for potential Israeli defiance that could fracture the agreement and test US-Iran coordination.

Watch For

Immediate milestones: Iranian negotiators’ Doha talks on implementation details (ongoing), the Geneva signing ceremony on Friday, and compliance with the Lebanon ceasefire—any fresh Israeli strikes on Hezbollah could collapse the deal. Within 60 days, verify the normalization of Strait of Hormuz shipping and Iran-Oman fee collection plans. Medium-term, monitor the launch of nuclear talks, US sanctions relief mechanics, IAEA verification of enrichment down-blending, and Israel’s military and political reactions, especially Netanyahu’s domestic pressures.