US-Iran deal takeaways: reopening the strait of Hormuz, waived oil sanctions and Lebanon

What Happened

The United States and Iran, along with their allies, have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that declares an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, effectively requiring Iran to rein in Hezbollah, according to senior US officials on a press call. Israel, which was not party to the negotiations, is not bound by the accord and retains the right to respond to any Hezbollah attacks. Under the deal, Iran agreed to down-blend its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on its own soil under IAEA supervision, a compromise by the US after earlier demands to ship the material abroad were dropped. The US committed to issuing waivers for Iranian crude oil exports and associated banking services immediately upon signing, and tied broader sanctions relief to a final comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, which must be negotiated within 60 days. Additionally, Iran is required to guarantee toll-free commercial passage in the Strait of Hormuz for at least 60 days and restore full traffic within 30 days, though Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf later stated Tehran would charge fees after the initial period, contradicting US officials. Both sides have 60 days—extendable by mutual consent—to reach a final deal, which would require a binding UN Security Council resolution.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The MOU marks a potential turning point after 100 days of military escalation, pausing multi-front hostilities across Lebanon and other theatres while addressing the core nuclear and economic flashpoints. The deal’s structure ties sanctions relief to concrete nuclear steps, potentially averting a wider Iran-Israel war, but critics note the immediate oil sanctions waiver could replenish Iran’s coffers without verifiable nuclear concessions. The Strait of Hormuz provisions are critical for global energy markets, and the clash between US and Iranian statements on future tolls signals unresolved tensions. Israel’s exclusion and declared freedom to act could undermine the ceasefire in Lebanon, while the 60-day negotiation window creates a narrow diplomatic track that could collapse, risking a return to tightened US sanctions and military pressure.

Watch For

In the next 60 days, monitor the start and progress of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with concrete indicators including IAEA verification of uranium down-blending and any steps toward a binding UN Security Council resolution. Watch for incidents in Lebanon: Hezbollah compliance or any attacks that could trigger Israeli retaliation, as Israel has explicitly preserved that right. Oil markets will react to the issuance of Treasury waivers and the actual restoration of Strait of Hormuz traffic; any Iranian attempts to impose fees after 60 days could escalate tensions with Gulf states and the US. If talks stall, US officials have signaled a return to intensified economic pressure, so legislative or executive actions tightening sanctions would be a key escalation signal.