US, Iran could sign ceasefire deal as soon as tonight to open Strait of Hormuz - Axios

What Happened

The US, Iran, and mediating parties are discussing accelerating the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) regarding a ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to an Axios report citing a mediating diplomat and a second source familiar with the talks. While the formal signing was initially set for Friday, the deal could be signed electronically as early as Wednesday evening, which would immediately release the full text and bring the strait-related provisions into effect. US Vice President JD Vance said the Trump administration pushed Pakistan, a mediator, to disclose the MoU text on Wednesday, adding, 'We want to tell the American people what’s in this deal.' Iran demanded that the text remain secret until the formal signing, a source told Axios, and denied reports the administration was under political pressure.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil transit, and its closure has been a recurring threat in US-Iran standoffs. An agreement to open it could lower oil prices, reduce maritime security risks, and signal a potential diplomatic off-ramp amid elevated tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and regional proxy activity. Immediate implementation would test both sides' commitments and could influence broader negotiations, but uncertainty remains over Iran's compliance and the exact scope of the deal.

Watch For

Announcement of the MoU signing as early as tonight or by Friday; release of the full text and clarity on strait-specific measures; tangible steps to open the Strait of Hormuz; reactions from Israel, Gulf states, and Iran’s Axis of Resistance allies; impact on oil markets; and any linkage to parallel nuclear talks or IAEA inspections.