US hopes to turn over 'new leaf' with Iran, but Trump threatens to resume bombing

What Happened

US Vice President JD Vance led a diplomatic initiative to improve ties with Iran, meeting Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Switzerland for technical talks after a memorandum of understanding was signed. Vance said President Trump sought to 'turn over a new leaf' with the Iranian people if Iran abandoned regional destabilisation and nuclear ambitions. Minutes later, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran must stop Hezbollah from 'causing trouble' in Lebanon or face renewed US bombing, referencing strikes he said the US conducted the previous week. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon, where at least 29 people were killed in southern Lebanon, a day after a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire was agreed. Iran warned it would not sign a broader deal while Israel continued its operations. Israeli defence minister Israel Katz declared Israeli forces would face 'no restrictions' in Lebanon and would not withdraw from a 10km security zone. A Hebrew University poll found 92% of Israelis believe Iran won the recent war, and 72.5% doubt Netanyahu's claims of strategic gains.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The simultaneous diplomatic engagement and military threats expose a volatile crossroads in US-Iran relations. Iran's explicit linkage of any nuclear deal to Israeli actions in Lebanon ties the diplomatic track directly to Hezbollah's fate, while Trump's threats risk derailing negotiations entirely. The Israeli public's belief that Iran 'won' the recent war adds domestic pressure on Netanyahu and may embolden Iranian negotiators, while Katz's defiant stance signals Israel may act independently, complicating US efforts to orchestrate a wider regional stabilisation.

Watch For

Monitor the technical talks' outcome for any concrete steps (e.g., IAEA inspection timelines or sanctions relief signals). Watch for Hezbollah-Israel clashes or a full ceasefire breakdown that could trigger US retaliation per Trump's threat. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz warrants scrutiny for duration and impact on oil markets. Israeli political developments are key: Netanyahu's standing and potential security cabinet challenges could shift Israel's posture toward both Iran and Lebanon.