Trump threatens to invade Iran's Kharg Island, then says Americans lack the 'stomach for it'

What Happened

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump threatened to seize Iran's main oil export hub, Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure, writing on Truth Social that the US would be 'hitting Iran... VERY HARD TONIGHT' and would 'take Kharg Island... and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets.' He later told Fox News that Americans lack 'the stomach for it,' walking back the threat while acknowledging high potential casualties. The article reports that the Trump administration had previously considered an invasion of Kharg Island early in the war but backed off. Concurrently, the US escalated strikes on Iran, targeting a drinking-water facility on Iran's southern coast, which Iranian officials said left 20,000 people without water, and attacking a commercial tanker in the Gulf of Oman, killing three Indian crew members. These actions occurred despite a ceasefire reached between the US and Iran in April. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed to use Iranian funds to compensate Gulf allies for damage and to offset tolls Iran collects for Strait of Hormuz transits. Meanwhile, the UAE engaged in face-to-face talks with senior Iranian officials to de-escalate tensions, a shift from earlier Gulf support for US military activity.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Trump's direct threat to seize Iranian territory signals a dangerous escalation that could draw in neighboring Gulf states and spark a broader regional war. The US strikes on civilian infrastructure and a commercial tanker risk international condemnation and reprisals, while the UAE's de-escalation outreach suggests eroding Gulf support for Washington's maximum-pressure approach. The choking of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on shipping further destabilize global energy markets and international trade.

Watch For

Monitor whether the US proceeds with plans to take Kharg Island or escalates strikes despite Trump's backtracking. Watch for the outcome of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's scheduled Gulf tour and any regional basing decisions. Track Iranian retaliation against US bases in Gulf states and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. Observe diplomatic backchannel developments, particularly around the nuclear file, and international responses—including from India and Oman—to the tanker strike and attacks on civilian infrastructure.