Trump says ships ‘starting to move’ through Strait of Hormuz

What Happened

On Monday, US President Donald Trump stated that 'ships are starting to move' through the Strait of Hormuz, citing a southern shipping route as safe. This announcement followed plans by the US and Iran to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on Friday aimed at ending the US-Israeli war with Iran. The initial deal, according to both sides, would see the strait reopened, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports lifted, and fighting halted on all fronts. However, a US military advisory said the blockade remains in effect until the Friday signing. Vice President JD Vance disclosed that the MoU was already signed 'digitally' on Sunday. The International Chamber of Shipping reported 500 vessels and 20,000 crew stranded, while the International Maritime Organization tallied 46 US and Iranian attacks on shipping during the conflict. Mine-sweeping operations are expected to take 40-50 days. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei indicated transit fees may be imposed, while Vance insisted on toll-free passage. More contentious issues—Iran's nuclear programme, support for proxies, unfrozen assets, and sanctions—are to be negotiated over 60 days after the MoU.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after a devastating US-Israeli war with Iran would alleviate a severe global energy supply disruption, with 500 ships stranded and maritime attacks rampant. The MoU, if finalized, marks a tentative de-escalation, though fundamental disputes over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions, and proxy support are deferred. The episode underscores Iran's strategic leverage over the vital waterway.

Watch For

The signing ceremony on Friday and whether the digital MoU terms are altered. Progress on mine-clearing operations, expected to last 40-50 days, will determine how quickly insurance and shipping confidence returns. The 60-day negotiation period on nuclear and sanctions issues will be critical. Any unilateral actions on tolls by Iran or pushback at the G7 summit could jeopardize the agreement.