Trump says new talks with Iran to begin on Monday

What Happened

US President Donald Trump claimed on June 23, 2024, that new negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday afternoon, after calling off what he described as 'massive' strikes on the country. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump said Iran and US allies in the Middle East had asked him to 'hold off' on the attack because 'the perimeters of a deal' had been agreed, including on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the UAE, and Qatar reportedly urged restraint. Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency denied that Tehran had asked the US to refrain from military action, calling Trump's claims 'a new lie.' Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that negotiations with Oman on a Strait of Hormuz deal were 'on track for finalisation.' Global oil prices fell on Monday morning in Asian trading, with Brent Crude down 4.5% to $83.98 and US-traded oil down 4.6% to $80.74, after Trump's announcement. Trump declined to specify a deadline or venue for the talks, and Iran had yet to formally respond to his remarks.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The reported talks could de-escalate a months-long conflict that has included tit-for-tat strikes and threatened disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of global crude oil and LNG. A negotiated solution might stabilize energy markets and reduce the risk of a wider military confrontation, but the contradictory claims—with Iran denying it sought a halt to strikes—underscore deep mistrust. The episode also highlights the influence of Gulf allies on US decision-making and the domestic pressure Trump faces ahead of the November midterms as public dissatisfaction with the war grows.

Watch For

Confirm whether talks actually commence on Monday, including venue and participants. Monitor official statements from the Iranian Foreign Ministry or Supreme Leader’s office, and any further denial or clarification from Tehran. Oil price movements and shipping insurance costs in the Strait of Hormuz will reflect market confidence. Also watch for continued US military posturing or renewed threats, and any IAEA reports related to Iran’s nuclear program, which could affect the negotiation’s scope.