Trump says Iran peace deal could be signed by Sunday, with strait of Hormuz to open shortly after

What Happened

On Saturday, US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would sign a peace agreement with Iran the following day, asserting it would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon 'either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement,' and would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping. Trump warned of 'the ultimate alternative' if the deal failed. The claim came amid conflicting timelines: Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated an electronic signing would occur within 24 hours, followed by technical talks next week, while Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei cautioned that a signing was 'not tomorrow' but possible 'in the coming days.' The reported draft agreement became a point of contradiction: Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency and Iranian officials described provisions including the release of $24 billion in frozen assets, a 60-day nuclear negotiation period, suspension of oil sanctions, service charges on Strait of Hormuz passage, and lifting of the US naval blockade imposed since April 13. US officials anonymously countered that the deal required destruction of Iran’s nuclear material, dismantlement of its program, and release of frozen funds only upon meeting demands, including ending support for militant groups. Hours after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed 'Iran is the winner,' US forces shot down several Iranian one-way attack drones heading toward the Strait of Hormuz. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed concern and continued airstrikes in southern Lebanon, issuing evacuation warnings for Nabatieh and over 20 other locations ahead of raids.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

A credible agreement could simultaneously address the intertwined crises of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the closure of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, frozen assets, sanctions relief, and Iran’s support for Axis of Resistance proxies across the region—potentially reshaping the multi-layered standoff that has periodically escalated to direct exchanges between Iran, Israel, and the United States. However, the starkly contradictory public narratives from Washington and Tehran, Trump’s history of claiming imminent deals before reverting to threats, and ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanon underscore deep uncertainty and the risk of a diplomatic trap or collapse that could trigger wider regional conflict.

Watch For

The claimed signing or collapse of the deal on Sunday; Pakistan’s mediation role and any electronic signing within 24 hours; technical-level talks in the following week; concrete details on the fate of frozen Iranian assets, sanctions on oil and petrochemicals, and service charges for strait passage; verification of Iran’s reported nuclear concessions and any IAEA involvement; US naval and air operations near the Strait of Hormuz following the drone shootdown; and Israel’s military calculus in Lebanon as talks proceed.