Trump's claim of 'low-keying' negotiations reignites debate over US policy towards Iran

What Happened

US President Donald Trump announced Washington intends to “low-key it” on the Iran issue, sparking debate over the direction of US policy toward the ayatollah regime. Israeli commentator Suleiman Maswadeh cautioned that Trump’s statements are unpredictable, noting domestic political considerations like the November midterm elections influence the president. He said Trump may be satisfied with the economic siege on Iran, which he claimed damages Iran’s economy but strengthens the Revolutionary Guards. Maswadeh highlighted that negotiations have shifted from a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran to a less ambitious framework between Oman and Iran that remains unrealized. He warned escalation remains possible due to Trump’s ego and provocative Iranian statements, saying, “The Iranians are really humiliating him... Every day there’s another statement from another senior official saying, ‘We humiliated the United States.’”

Key Actors

Why It Matters

This development underscores the volatility in US-Iran relations under the Trump administration, with direct implications for Israel’s security calculus and broader regional stability. The economic pressure campaign may entrench hardline elements like the IRGC, while the potential for either a deal or military confrontation remains high.

Watch For

The November midterm elections in the US, which may shift Trump’s policy stance; any new statements from Washington or Tehran indicating escalation or de-escalation; progress on the Oman-Iran diplomatic track; and economic conditions within Iran that could affect regime stability or public unrest.