Three reasons ships are not going through the Strait of Hormuz yet

What Happened

Despite President Trump's Sunday announcement of a deal with Iran and the declared reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, BBC Verify analysis of MarineTraffic data shows only seven vessels have transited the waterway since the deal, while approximately 580 ships wait in the Gulf. The strait has been effectively closed since late February after US and Israeli strikes, with Iran firing on ships attempting passage without permission and the US maintaining a naval blockade (announced removal pending deal signature). Three main obstacles block resumption: (1) security risks from Iran's earlier attacks and the US blockade's uncertain status, causing a 'wait-and-see' approach among captains and insurers; (2) extensive sea mines, which Iran threatened to deploy and US Secretary of State Rubio confirmed were placed, requiring a slow clearance operation estimated at 30 days to six months; (3) unresolved questions over potential transit fees, as historical free passage is now uncertain given neither Iran nor the US are parties to UNCLOS.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas flows. Prolonged closure disrupts energy markets and global supply chains, while the slow resumption of traffic despite a diplomatic deal highlights deep security and practical obstacles that could destabilize regional trade and diplomacy.

Watch For

Monitor ship-tracking data for the first wave of tankers departing the Gulf; initiation and progress of UK- and French-led mine-clearing operations, including the width and safety of the cleared channel; the formal signing of the US-Iran deal and the actual lifting of the US naval blockade; any further attacks or mine incidents; and statements from maritime insurers on risk reassessments.