Strait of Hormuz reopens: But can ships’ safety be assured?

What Happened

The United States and Iran announced a preliminary ceasefire deal on Sunday, with President Trump declaring the Strait of Hormuz "wide open" for shipping. The waterway had been closed since late February when US-Israeli bombing prompted Iran to shut it, and the US imposed a naval blockade. Since the announcement, only seven vessels have transited the strait, according to MarineTraffic, including a few Iranian tankers that crossed the US blockade line—Iran's first crude exports in two months, per TankerTrackers. Over 550 ships remain stranded on either side. US Central Command stated a day before the deal that its blockade had redirected 142 ships and disabled nine non-compliant vessels, while last week US military attacks on commercial vessels killed three Indian sailors. The IRGC insists that all transits must be coordinated with Iranian forces and follow a route close to the Iranian coast, citing potential mines. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate that Iran had "mined large segments of Hormuz," though Iran has not confirmed this. Iran also says it will charge fees for coordination services, a move the US and GCC states argue violates freedom of navigation. Shipping companies and insurers remain wary, with an analyst at Jyske Bank estimating it could take four months of incident-free transit before normalisation, and mine clearance alone may require two months.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is critical for global energy markets, as it normally handles 20 million barrels of oil daily. The continued paralysis despite a political deal underscores the fragility of ceasefires and the primacy of physical security assurances over diplomatic announcements. The standoff over tolls and mine clearance could delay recovery, prolong the energy crisis, and test Iran's compliance with international maritime norms.

Watch For

The ceremonial signing of the deal in Switzerland on Friday may clarify the terms of the ceasefire and the phased withdrawal of blockades. Mine-clearing operations—likely a US-led effort—and the IRGC's actual implementation of its coordination rules will be key indicators. Insurance market reactions, any incidents involving ships attempting transit, and statements from CENTCOM and Iranian naval forces will shape the timeline for normal shipping traffic to resume.