So is the US war with Iran over? In a word: no | Mohamad Bazzi

What Happened

The United States and Iran have reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, following weeks of military conflict that began on 28 February. The deal, expected to be signed in Geneva on Friday, suspends tolls Iran had imposed on commercial shipping during the hostilities. This agreement extends a previous 8 April ceasefire that failed to resolve the blockade. The conflict, which included joint US-Israeli airstrikes, resulted in the deaths of over 30 Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, leading to the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The conflict has fundamentally altered the regional status quo, demonstrating Iran's capacity to disrupt global energy and agricultural supply chains via the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the military pressure applied by the United States and Israel, the Iranian leadership has emerged with increased leverage, complicating future diplomatic efforts to restore pre-war freedom of navigation and address nuclear enrichment concerns.

Watch For

Monitor the formal signing of the agreement in Geneva on Friday and the subsequent negotiations scheduled to conclude by 19 June. Key indicators include whether Iran continues to enforce 'navigation and security' fees and if the United States and Iran can reach a long-term resolution regarding the status of the waterway and Iran's nuclear program.