Russia preparing possible ‘provocation’ in Baltic states or Poland, sources say

What Happened

Latvian intelligence stated on Monday that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland, describing them as limited hybrid attacks using missiles, drones, or other actions designed to signal that supporting Ukraine will bring problems. A senior political source from a second NATO member confirmed similar intelligence last week, saying Vladimir Putin might be willing to test US support for smaller NATO members as Russia struggles in its Ukraine invasion. The warnings come with limited supporting detail, but follow a pattern of Russian sabotage and provocative activity since the 2022 full-scale invasion, including firebombs in DHL parcels in 2024 and drone incursions into Polish airspace. Ukraine’s campaign of long-range strikes on targets near Moscow and St Petersburg is also cited as a pressure point that could trigger Russian escalation.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

A Russian provocation against NATO members, even a limited one, could challenge the alliance's Article 5 commitment and potentially spread the conflict beyond Ukraine. It reflects Moscow's effort to disrupt the Western coalition's support for Kyiv as its own military advance stalls and Ukrainian strikes bring the war closer to Russian cities. The situation raises the risk of miscalculation and escalation, especially if the US commitment to defending small frontline states is uncertain.

Watch For

Monitor for unusual Russian military movements near the borders of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, or Poland, including drone or missile incursions into NATO airspace. Watch the NATO summit in Ankara for any formal statements or policy shifts regarding the Eastern flank. Look for any hybrid attacks or sabotage incidents in Europe attributed to Russian actors. Also track the continuation of Ukraine's deep strikes into Russia and any overt Russian retaliation against NATO members.