Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy declares 40-day Russia blitz to ‘influence the aggressor state’

What Happened

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has authorised a 40-day operation targeting Russian infrastructure to pressure the Russian government. As part of this campaign, Ukrainian forces struck oil refineries in Ufa and an oil depot in Poltavskaya, Krasnodar region. Simultaneously, Russian-controlled areas in Crimea and the Kherson region are experiencing power outages and fuel shortages. In response to the ongoing conflict, the Ukrainian military has ordered a mandatory evacuation of approximately 1,000 residents in the Chernihiv region starting 1 July. Separately, the Ukrainian army has suspended Lt Col Yurii Garkavyi, commander of the 425th separate assault brigade, pending an investigation into allegations of abuse and 26 non-combat deaths within the unit's training camps.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The 40-day operation represents a strategic shift toward long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, forcing the Russian military to redeploy air defence assets away from the front lines to protect critical sites like Moscow and the Kerch Bridge. The situation in Belarus remains a critical security concern, as Ukraine monitors the construction of military infrastructure near the border, while the internal investigation into the 425th brigade highlights ongoing challenges regarding military discipline and training standards within the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Watch For

Monitor the impact of the 1 July mandatory evacuation in the Chernihiv region and the progress of the state bureau of investigations' inquiry into the 425th brigade. Additionally, observe whether the reported redeployment of Russian air defences creates tactical vulnerabilities in active combat zones and track the development of the European missile defence system collaboration between Fire Point and Hensoldt.