Pragmatic choice: Israel’s war backfires as Gulf backs US-Iran deal

What Happened

All six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—welcomed a US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed last week, marking a shift toward diplomacy after years of tension. The deal follows Israeli and US strikes on Iran on February 28, which prompted Tehran to launch attacks on Gulf cities. Analysts said the strikes backfired by compelling Gulf states to pursue a pragmatic relationship with Iran, prioritizing dialogue to prevent conflict over military confrontation. Qatar is co-mediating the talks, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is touring the Gulf to reassure allies. The MoU includes provisions on the Strait of Hormuz and a proposed regional investment fund for Iran, though details remain aspirational.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The GCC's embrace of the US-Iran MoU signals a regional realignment where Gulf states prioritize immediate threats—Iran's drones, missiles, and proxy networks—over long-term nuclear concerns. Their pragmatic turn toward diplomacy, even after being attacked, underscores a fracture with Israel's confrontational approach and highlights a Gulf-led security calculus that seeks to contain conflict through negotiation rather than military force. The MoU's inclusion of Strait of Hormuz and investment mechanisms could redefine economic and security arrangements, while Rubio's tour tests whether the US can balance Iran diplomacy with traditional alliance commitments.

Watch For

Monitor the conclusion of Rubio's Gulf tour and any joint statements that clarify US guarantees; watch for formal negotiations on Strait of Hormuz tolls and the investment fund's structure, including Qatar's reported '$300bn aspirational' figure and whether Gulf states agree to contribute. Track potential Israeli pushback or escalatory actions that could undermine the diplomatic track, and observe if the MoU evolves into a comprehensive agreement beyond nuclear issues.