Majority of US voters think Iran war 'not worth it', new poll finds

What Happened

A Quinnipiac University national poll of 1,165 self-identified registered voters, conducted 18–22 June, finds that 60% of US voters believe the military action against Iran was 'not worth it', following the signing of a 60-day Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) ceasefire between the US and Iran. The war began on 28 February when US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a joint campaign to eliminate Iran's nuclear programme and military infrastructure. The conflict reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was succeeded by his son Mojtaba, and did not achieve regime change. The US has conceded failure to destroy Iran's ballistic missile programme and now defends Iran's right to possess such a programme. The poll shows deep partisan splits: 93% of Democrats and 66% of independents view the war as not worth it, while 75% of Republicans consider it worthwhile. Additionally, 59% are not confident in the MoU, and 61% believe Iran remains likely to develop nuclear weapons. A separate Hebrew University of Jerusalem survey (3,644 Israelis, 17–20 June) reveals 92% of Israelis think Iran won the war, 83% say the war weakened Israel's long-term security, and 72.5% distrust Netanyahu's claims of significant gains. Economic strain, including Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz costing the US nearly $60bn and increasing household fuel expenses by $447.19 on average, contributed to public antagonism.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The polling data signals a sharp US domestic backlash against a high-cost military intervention that failed to achieve its stated objectives, potentially constraining future US-Iran conflict or diplomatic engagement. The perception that Iran emerged stronger — retaining its ballistic missile programme and securing a ceasefire without dismantling its nuclear infrastructure — undermines US and Israeli deterrence. In Israel, overwhelming public sentiment that Iran won and the war weakened security may destabilise Netanyahu's government and embolden Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies in Lebanon and the region. The economic fallout from the Strait of Hormuz closure underscores the vulnerability of global energy markets to Iranian retaliation, reinforcing Tehran's asymmetric leverage.

Watch For

Expiry of the 60-day Islamabad MoU and whether negotiations yield a permanent cessation or hostilities resume. US Congressional or electoral fallout, particularly as the war's costs and perceived failure enter campaign narratives. Israeli political dynamics: potential no-confidence motions or early elections as Netanyahu's war management is widely panned. Iranian actions on ballistic missile development and nuclear enrichment in the absence of a permanent deal. Israeli military operations in Lebanon, which Iran has tied to the ceasefire's durability, and any US pressure on Israel to withdraw.