Khamenei’s post-war Iran: What comes next for the regime's Supreme Leader? - analysis

What Happened

Following a US-Iran conflict that killed the former supreme leader and included February 28 airstrikes, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in a precarious power struggle, according to an analysis by UAE-based Al-Ain News, partly citing The Daily Telegraph. Al-Ain News reports the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reached unprecedented power after massacring tens of thousands of protesters before the war and claiming to have saved the regime. Mojtaba is believed wounded in the airstrikes and has not appeared publicly; his formal authority is 'worthless' if IRGC leaders refuse to submit. Iran signed a memorandum of understanding with the US, with a moderate Iranian president as its public face, but hardliners in the IRGC could make him a 'fall guy' or mount a coup. The analysis warns Mojtaba must dismantle his father's networks, marginalize generals, and possibly purge judiciary head Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei or even loyalist Ahmad Vahidi to consolidate power, though he is in a weaker position than his father.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The internal power struggle could determine Iran's stability and foreign policy. If the IRGC undermines or overthrows Mojtaba, a more militarized regime may reignite conflict with the US and Israel and destabilize the region. If Mojtaba outmaneuvers the generals, it might open diplomatic space. The outcome directly affects the viability of the reported US-Iran MOU and the security of the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear file, and regional proxies.

Watch For

Monitor Mojtaba Khamenei's first public appearance or health confirmation; statements from IRGC commanders indicating loyalty or defiance; potential dismissal of judiciary head Mohseni Ejei or IRGC insider Ahmad Vahidi; implementation steps of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and any hardliner pushback; and regional reactions from Israel, GCC states, and Iran's proxy network.