Iraq’s impossible predicament: why the country is trapped between Iran and the US

What Happened

Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI)—an umbrella group of Iran-backed Shia militias—launched a series of drone and kinetic strikes against Iraqi energy infrastructure and foreign-operated oil facilities in Basra. Attacks between 6 March and 11 March targeted sites managed by BP, Halliburton, and KBR, resulting in significant fires and the death of at least one crew member on an oil tanker. While the central government in Baghdad has remained largely passive, officials report that these strikes aim to disrupt oil production, inflate global prices, and pressure the United States to cease military operations against Iran.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The escalation exposes the fragility of the Iraqi state, which is currently unable to prevent domestic paramilitary groups from weaponizing national infrastructure to serve Iranian strategic interests. The resulting collapse of oil exports—down by two-thirds in Basra—threatens Iraq's economic stability and forces the departure of foreign energy firms, further isolating the country as it becomes a primary theater for the broader US-Iran conflict.

Watch For

Monitor the 30 September deadline set by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi for militia disarmament, as the refusal of hardline factions to comply will likely trigger further domestic instability and potential direct confrontations between state-aligned forces and the IRI.