Iran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral

What Happened

In the past 48 hours, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intensified efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz after a US-backed southern route near Oman allowed ships to bypass Iranian-dominated waters. On Saturday, at least eight ships turned around following direct IRGC warnings, and traffic declined further on Sunday. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported a vessel attacked by 'unknown armed assailants' off Hodeidah, Yemen. Marine Traffic data showed 38 confirmed strait crossings on 2 July, a 10% day-on-day drop, with Iranian-flagged activity rising from two to 11 crossings and nine crossings in contravention of sanctions. IRGC actions came as French President Emmanuel Macron announced UK-France plans for a mine-clearing naval force to secure the southern route, a move the Iranian foreign ministry rejected as 'unwarranted and unjustified interference.' A 17 June US-Iran memorandum of understanding required Iran to restore traffic and not impose tolls for 60 days, but it is only loosely observed.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil transits, directly impacts global energy prices and economic stability. Iran’s tightening grip, coinciding with Khamenei’s funeral and succession dynamics, tests the 17 June ceasefire memorandum and risks escalation at a chokepoint already strained by sanctions-evasion traffic and proxy attacks.

Watch For

The 60-day deadline from the 17 June memorandum expires around mid-August; mutual consent is required to renew, and both sides are building up forces. Monitor whether the UK-France mine-clearing operation materialises and how Iran responds. Also watch Marine Traffic data for further IRGC-influenced route shifts and any additional incidents near Hodeidah.