Iran conflict: Why has oil stayed near $100 a barrel?

Over 100 days into the Iran conflict, approximately 20 percent of global energy flows remain disrupted, yet oil prices have remained near $100 a barrel, avoiding the worst-case scenario of over $200. While strategic reserves and alternative routes have contained prices, thinning buffers and weaker demand continue to weigh on the global economy, with potential impacts lingering until 2027.