US and Iran threaten return to war after fiercest exchange of fire since truce

What Happened

The US military launched strikes on Iranian weapon launch sites, air defences, and coastal surveillance systems around the Strait of Hormuz early Wednesday, according to US Central Command. The attacks were in response to Iranian strikes on three commercial vessels transiting the strait on Tuesday, including the Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat. US officials described the operation as lasting 'for hours', and Iranian state media reported explosions on Qeshm Island, Sirik, and Bandar Abbas. Simultaneously, the US Treasury revoked a temporary suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil exports that had been granted last month under a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) initiating 60-day nuclear negotiations and a permanent end to hostilities. Iran’s foreign ministry accused the US of repeated MOU violations, citing the sanctions revocation and the military strikes, and warned of 'decisive measures'. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre confirmed the Al Rekayyat was struck near Oman, and Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari called the attack a 'serious and explicit violation' of international law, holding Iran fully responsible. The events unfolded during the funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who the article says was killed at the start of the war.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The exchange of strikes and sanctions revocation threaten to collapse the fragile ceasefire and the nascent MOU which began 60-day nuclear negotiations. The attack on a Qatari vessel, while Qatar mediates talks, risks alienating a key intermediary. Vague MOU wording on strait management—Iran insists it must oversee reopening in consultation with Oman, while the US seeks alternative shipping corridors—has led to divergent interpretations and repeated violations, endangering the path to a permanent end of hostilities. The escalation occurs amid national mourning for Khamenei, potentially hardening Iran’s resolve and complicating the political calculus for its leadership.

Watch For

Iran’s threatened 'decisive measures' could materialise as further strikes on shipping or US assets in the region. The ongoing funeral for Ayatollah Khamenei may amplify domestic pressure for retaliation. The revocation of the oil sanctions waiver, effective Tuesday, will strain Iran’s economy and test its commitment to the MOU negotiations. Monitor Oman’s proposed coastal shipping corridor for potential unilateral implementation or Iranian interference. The 60-day nuclear negotiation window is now at risk of collapse if both sides continue tit-for-tat violations.