INSS survey : Israelis fear internal violence equally to Iranian nuclear bomb

What Happened

A July 2024 survey by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) found that 39% of Israelis view both violent internal conflict between social groups and Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon as the most threatening scenarios facing Israel in the next five years, a slight decline from February when those figures were 42% and 40%, respectively. While fear of a large-scale missile attack fell from 38% to 35%, concern about a prolonged war on one of Israel's fronts rose from 23% to 27%, and worry about international isolation and sanctions rose from 21% to 26%. Among 147 Israeli experts surveyed in February, the top threats were undermining the state's democratic character (67%), violent internal conflict (58%), and international isolation and sanctions (44%); only 26% of experts considered Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon likely or highly likely. Across the public surveys, 61% in July assessed a large-scale missile attack as highly likely, and 56% anticipated significant damage. Regarding preparedness, 64% believed the state had low readiness for internal violence, and 51% thought such violence would disrupt state authorities.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The INSS survey reveals shifting Israeli threat perceptions, with internal social fragmentation rivaling the Iranian nuclear threat in public consciousness. This reflects deep domestic polarization and could influence national security prioritization, defense budgeting, and policy toward Iran. The expert–public gap on the likelihood of an Iranian nuclear weapon suggests a need for clearer strategic communication from the security establishment.

Watch For

How the Israeli government, under Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition, responds to these dual threats—potentially doubling down on Iran's nuclear program internationally while addressing domestic unrest. Monitor for any new initiatives on social cohesion or changes in Iran diplomacy, particularly as the IAEA continues its monitoring and as regional tensions persist. The next major public opinion survey could indicate whether these trends hold or shift.