Trump says ‘good chance’ of progress in Iran talks. What we know

What Happened

US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about progress in negotiations with Iran, describing them as 'very friendly' and noting 'a good chance' of progress during a speech in Michigan on Monday. He warned that military action could resume if talks fail. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei denied direct negotiations with Washington, stating that only messages might be conveyed through intermediaries. Oman is reportedly leading mediation, with Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also involved, according to Axios. The diplomatic push follows a pause in US strikes on Friday, after which Iran halted its retaliatory attacks. The core dispute centers on control of the Strait of Hormuz: a June 17 Memorandum of Understanding committed Iran to facilitating commercial shipping for 60 days, but disagreements arose after Iran claimed it implied Iranian control and hinted at transit charges, while Oman announced a new US-supported shipping corridor. Subsequent attacks included a commercial vessel struck off Oman on June 25, US strikes on Iran, and Iranian strikes on desalination plants and power facilities in Kuwait. The conflict broadened to include Houthi blockades on Saudi ports and a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The talks aim to avert a regional war while addressing the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil and LNG transits. A breakdown risks renewed military exchanges, severe disruption to energy markets, and wider involvement by Iranian proxy networks, including Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and pressure on Gulf states.

Watch For

Trump's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday could shape the US stance. Monitor whether a new shipping arrangement can be agreed before the expiration of the 60-day MoU period, if Iran will formally introduce transit fees, and whether the pause in US and Iranian strikes holds. Escalation by Houthis or other Iranian allies could also derail talks.