US-Iran deal leaves core sticking points unresolved - and a $300bn question

What Happened

The United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding on Wednesday, marking a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a framework for negotiations toward a comprehensive deal. The agreement, outlined by US officials, commits Iran to 'downblending' its highly enriched uranium stockpile under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision, but leaves technical details and timelines to be settled during a 60-day negotiation period starting after the signing on Friday. The text also states the US will work with regional partners to develop a plan with at least $300 billion for Iran’s reconstruction, though a senior US official on a press call denied this obligates direct US payments. The initial deal extends a ceasefire to Hezbollah but gives little attention to Iran’s support for proxy groups or its missile program—priorities cited by President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the start of the war that Israel joined the US in launching.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The initial accord temporarily de-escalates US-Iran hostilities but leaves critical nuclear non-proliferation and regional security issues unresolved. The 60-day deadline, open to extension, contrasts with the 20 months needed for the 2015 nuclear deal, raising doubts about achieving a comprehensive agreement. The opaque reconstruction funding language could become a political liability for Trump, who opposed cash payments to Iran. The deal’s silence on Iran’s missile program and proxy networks risks perpetuating threats to Israel and regional stability.

Watch For

The 60-day negotiation period and any extension; technical details of uranium downblending and IAEA verification; clarity on the $300 billion reconstruction plan and whether it implies US financial commitments; whether future talks address Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies; Israel’s reaction and any continuing military operations; Trump’s stated willingness to resume bombing if a final deal is not reached.