How the Gulf will manage collective security after the Iran war ends

What Happened

United States President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire deal with Iran is imminent, following the cancellation of planned US strikes. While the US administration claims a 'great settlement' has been reached, Iranian officials stated they are still reviewing a proposed Memorandum of Understanding. This development follows an offensive against Iran launched by the US and Israel on 28 February, which resulted in retaliatory Iranian drone and rocket attacks against Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. According to reports, these strikes have caused at least 28 fatalities across the six GCC nations.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The conflict has exposed the limitations of the long-standing US-Gulf security model, as the presence of US military facilities in the region made host nations targets for Iranian strikes. The disruption of energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the failure of the US security umbrella to prevent regional casualties have prompted GCC states to reconsider their reliance on Washington and explore alternative, potentially hybrid, regional security frameworks.

Watch For

Monitor the formal signing of the proposed Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, as well as any subsequent shifts in GCC defense policy, such as increased investment in local defense industries or the potential revival of regional security initiatives like the 2019 Hormuz Peace Initiative.