Houthis eye 'full control' of Bab el-Mandeb, as Saudi-backed forces reel from offensive

What Happened

Houthi forces have launched a significant offensive along the Tihama plain, resulting in the capture of the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha from the National Resistance Forces (NRF). Following this advance, Houthi units have reportedly deployed to the Hanish Islands and are moving toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the island of Perim. According to maritime security analysts at Dryad Global, these territorial gains place the Houthis in a position to exert control over maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb choke point. The offensive occurred with limited resistance from Saudi-backed forces, amid reports of an impasse in coordination talks between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates regarding military support in Yemen.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Houthi control of the Bab el-Mandeb threatens a critical global maritime artery through which approximately 12 percent of seaborne oil trade passes. By securing this position, the Houthis gain the ability to enforce a blockade against Saudi Arabia and potentially impose tolls on international shipping, mirroring Iranian tactics in the Strait of Hormuz. This development significantly alters the regional security architecture, as it demonstrates the Houthis' capacity to project power despite previous US-led air campaigns and highlights the vulnerability of Saudi-backed forces in the absence of unified coalition support.

Watch For

Monitor for further Houthi movements toward the island of Perim and the southern coast of the Bab el-Mandeb. Additionally, watch for any shifts in the diplomatic impasse between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as a potential return of UAE military support could alter the defensive posture of anti-Houthi forces in the region.