Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows

What Happened

Provisional ship-tracking data from Kpler showed Middle East crude oil exports rose above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, including September 24 and between September 27 and 29, when they reached 19.5-22.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Kpler's overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30, while the seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1. The figures include transits via the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, exports from terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, but exclude vessels that may have crossed with automatic identification system transponders switched off.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas flows, and the divergence between Kpler's export data and IRGC commander Ali Fadavi's claim that only a 'negligible' 3-4 million bpd is transiting highlights both the operational uncertainty and the propaganda dimension of the standoff. Iran's asserted closure of the strait until the US accepts a seven-day plan, combined with claimed strikes on US Navy vessels and UKMTO's daily attack reports, could disrupt a significant share of world crude and LNG supplies and risks direct Iranian-US military escalation.

Watch For

Monitor whether Washington responds to Tehran's seven-day reopening plan, whether Kpler's daily export figures sustain or reverse the reported above-pre-war levels, and whether UKMTO continues to log daily attacks in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden. Also watch for any confirmed US naval redeployments or IRGC actions against shipping, and for statements from Iran's Supreme Leader or National Security Council on the claimed closure.