Hormuz blockade is 'worse than war’: Iranian official says US blockade would cost Iran $18 billion

What Happened

Majidreza Hariri, head of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, told Khabar Online on [date unspecified] that a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $18 billion annually. Hariri calculated that land transport of a container from China costs an average $12,000, four times the sea cost, and with around 2 million containers imported yearly, the additional expense would be $9,000 per container, totaling $18 billion. He argued that non-oil exports, valued at $50 billion annually, would become economically unviable, and warned that continued blockade would halt the entire $100 billion foreign trade. Hariri urged Iran to end the blockade by any means, including war, and criticized past sanction-circumvention efforts for leading to corruption and economic weakness. The warning came as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly advocated a strategy to circumvent the naval blockade, while Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni stated Iran has invested in infrastructure to increase truck-based bilateral trade from $3 billion to $10 billion, though Hariri said land trade can only handle 20% of import-export capacity and many neighbors lack 'appropriate relations' due to previous Iranian attacks on Gulf infrastructure.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The statement by a senior commerce official underscores the severe economic pressure on Iran from US efforts to cut maritime trade through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. It signals a potential shift in internal debate toward military escalation if diplomatic or circumstantial solutions fail, raising the risk of direct confrontation with the US. The blockade's projected $18 billion annual cost would cripple an economy already weakened by sanctions, possibly forcing Tehran into desperate measures that could destabilize global energy markets.

Watch For

Monitor for any official Iranian government response to Hariri's comments, progress on Pezeshkian's reported circumvention strategy, further details on Iran-China land trade volume, and any incidents or military posturing in the Strait of Hormuz that could indicate escalation.