'From outlier to trailblazer': How Oman offers a glimpse into the post-war Gulf

What Happened

Following a US-Iran war that began on 28 February, a ceasefire widely viewed as a victory for Iran has reshaped Gulf dynamics. Oman, which refused to join US-led attacks and instead maintained a conciliatory stance toward Tehran, is now seen as the biggest winner. President Trump threatened to attack Oman after Muscat did not renounce Iran’s call for a joint Strait of Hormuz toll, but Omani officials held firm. As the war ended, other Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and especially the UAE—have moved to accommodate Iran. Kuwait signaled willingness to pay transit fees through the Strait, while the UAE, despite launching dozens of strikes on Iran and trying to block Pakistan-mediated talks, reportedly agreed to pay Iran billions of dollars to halt attacks and hosted IRGC officials at a guesthouse. Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi had earlier criticized US policy and called Iranian strikes on Gulf states hosting US bases "inevitable."

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The war and its outcome have reversed the region's central question from Israel-Gulf normalization to Gulf accommodation with Iran. Oman's long-standing conciliatory approach, once an outlier, is now being copied by neighbors who see economic and security imperatives in mending ties with Tehran despite distrust. The Strait of Hormuz has become a fulcrum for Iranian leverage and Gulf financial concessions.

Watch For

Monitor US-Iran peace talks and potential sanctions relief; formalization of Strait of Hormuz transit payments; Oman's bilateral mediation efforts; and whether the UAE's reported payments to Iran alter longer-term Emirati security posture.